AJ
🔹 Hezbollah invaded Israel following a declared ceasefire in early 2024, mainly because Israel refused to hand over Palestinian prisoners and other prisoners captured during the wars.
🔹 The invasion by Hezbollah resulted in Israeli soldiers being kidnapped and held hostage in an attempt to force Israel’s hand, asking for the release of the prisoners in exchange for the hostage.
🔹 Israel took the invasion and kidnapping differently, heavily bombing several areas of southern Lebanon and Beirut in an attempt to force Hezbollah to hand over the Israeli soldiers, eventually resulting in another ceasefire declared.
🔹 On March 2nd, 2026, Israel was attacked by Hezbollah following escalating attacks on Iran and the killing of then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a bombing that killed several family members and injured the now-Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
🔹 Israel saw this as their final chance, with US support, to push for the Greater Israel project, admitted by Israel’s ministers, including Finance Minister Smotrich, Defence Minister Katz, Security Minister Ben Gvir, and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
🔹 US and Iran negotiated a ceasefire in April, with officials including Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Vice President JD Vance including several terms, published Pakistan Prime Minister Shebaz Sherif, stating the ceasefire was on all fronts, including Lebanon.
🔹 PM Netanyahu quickly called Washington, fearful that the agreement would mean that Israel would have to halt current attacks and advancements in southern Lebanon, but managed to get the green light to continue attacking, causing major issues and breaches of trust between the US and Iran.
🔹 The Islamabad ceasefire agreement included the Strait of Hormuz being reopened, which was done within 24 hours by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi via Twitter before leaving Islamabad, but saw a tweet by JD Vance stating attacks could continue on Lebanon, and ordered the Strait closed.
🔹 Following the order, the IRGC Navy issued warning shots and orders stating the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Israel honoured the ceasefire agreement, leading to both the Public Project Freedom and Secret Project Freedom missions taking place, where the US escorted vessels out the Strait under the cover of darkness.
🔹 Iran saw a lot of the movements, targeting the vessels with drones and missiles on an almost nightly basis, but these just resulted in counterstrikes on the launch positions and Naval bases of the IRGC by the US, and further counterstrikes by Iran on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
🔹 President Trump admitted in early June that the Freedom Operation had been running secretively at night, claiming no one knew the vessels were being moved, despite at least 25 ships per night transiting the Strait with US protection, around four days before agreeing to the Memorandum of Understanding.
🔹 Iran made it clear in the understanding that Lebanon should be included, naming Lebanon three times in the first term of the agreement, but Israel’s continued airstrikes have only tested the Iranian patience, leading to reports of the Strait being closed by Iranian media, followed by Tasnim News slamming Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei for not closing Hormuz.
🔹 Due to Israel’s continued attacks, Iran threatened to pull out of the MoU entirely, but said they would just postpone the Switzerland talks temporarily until several key points had been implemented by the US, along with a subsequent monitoring period.
🔹 However, Israeli officials continue to say that the Hezbollah issue is unrelated to the war, (despite Hezbollah joining the war alongside Iran), and that the IDF would retain positions in the south of Lebanon, while also continuing to demolish alleged ‘Hezbollah infrastructure.’
🔹 Not all infrastructure is Hezbollah though, as Defence Minister Katz pointed out on Friday, stating that thanks to the IDF and the demolition processes, more than 200,000 Lebanese people will never see their homes standing again in them towns.
🔹 What happens next is down to the USA, who have the power to force Israel to stop, however, Israel also appear to be pressuring the USA to be able to continue attacks on Lebanon, remain in southern Lebanon, and would potentially involve future settlement.
Sources: Tasnim News, Mehr News, Israeli Channel 12, Israeli Channel 14, Lebanese News and Intel, AJ News.
