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⚡️ Israel believed to have intelligence that Turkish forces were not only repairing a Turkish military base at Abu al-Duhur Airbase but had plans to deploy troops, and as an unknown reconnaissance drone reported in the area for around 24 hours prior to the attack taking place, reports surfaced on Tuesday of at least 8 explosions in the vicinity of the airport.
➡️ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that Israel had warned Syria prior to the attack that it would not let Turkish forces be present at the base: “Our message was very clear: don’t do it – it seems they didn’t fully understand the message.”
🔹 According to the Syrian Prime Minister al-Sharaa, Israel had no legal or acceptable justification for bombing the base, while stating Syria remained ready to negotiate with Israel to de-escalate tensions, and that the two sides had made significant progress in security agreements during a year of negotiations mediated by the US, but Israel had later withdrew from its commitments, and the agreement was never implemented.
🔹 Speculation surrounding the attacks was mounting throughout the day, with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani telling Axios that Damascus had explicitly told Israel in writing that there were no plans to establish a Turkish military base or presence at the airbase.
🔹 “Our message was very clear – don’t, but I guess they didn’t quite understand the message,” al-Shaibani said, adding: “He said there was no military buildup that could justify the attack, adding that the base was largely empty, not yet operational, and still undergoing rehabilitation,” Axios reported.
🔹 Al-Shaibani said the attack targeted the facility’s runways and hangars that had been newly renovated, situated 70km from the Turkish border, noting that no casualties were reported.
🔹 While the latest Israeli assessments indicated the strike targeted strategic Turkish weapons systems not held by Syria, al-Shaibani emphasised that operations at the base were limited to rehabilitating facilities for the Syrian Air Force.
🔹 Turkish military personnel visited the base days before the attack for training and knowledge exchange under an ongoing military cooperation agreement, as Syria currently rebuilds its military and civilian institutions through similar partnerships with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, and Russia, asserting its sovereign right to form alliances with any nation.
🔹 Al-Shaibani claimed the nature of the activity was transparent and communicated to Israel before-hand, emphasising that the base remained under exclusive Syrian control with no planned permanent Turkish presence.
🔹 Damascus maintained diplomatic contact with the Trump administration both before and after the incident to convey its position, mitigate escalation, and protest the Israeli military actions.
🔹 The Syrian government accused Israel of utilising Syrian territory to settle scores and requested international pressure to ensure Israel does not ‘turn its territory into an arena for settling scores’ or expanding the current conflict.
🔹 Al-Shaibani stated that current Israeli policy, including military escalation and ground actions, undermined regional stability and failed to contribute to long-term security.
🔹 Syria remains interested in a security agreement to reduce border tensions but demanded that Israel recognise Syrian sovereignty and cease expansionist military operations.
🔹 Al-Shaibani indicated that while Syria had addressed a significant part of Israeli security concerns during negotiations, any future agreement must be bilateral and requires a mutual framework, expressing that renewed negotiations are possible if Israel demonstrated real political will to move toward stability, instead of continuing the cycle of military escalation.
➡️ The Israeli security establishment reported following with great concern the growing presence and activity of the Turkish naval fleet in the Eastern Mediterranean basin, after several recent incidents in international waters where Turkish military vessels had moved close to Israeli warships passing through the area.
🔹 According to Israeli officials, the Turkish ships attempted to demonstrate presence and power, and approached Israeli ships in several different instances in the waters surrounding Israel, according to Channel 12.
➡️ Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz posted in a message in Turkish to X saying that Erdogan is dragging Turkiye into dangerous adventures in Syria, and Israel will now allow any actor to threaten its security.
🔹 Katz warned: “It would be better for Erdogan to continue his detached-from-reality, fanciful rhetoric against Israel in the Turkish Grand National Assembly than to attempt to test Israel’s determination to defend itself.”
➡️ Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak condemned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s escalation with Turkiye following the strike on the airbase as ‘reckless and foolish,’ saying: “Netanyahu has completely gone off the rails.”
🔹 Barak argued that Turkiye is ‘not Iran or Assad’s Syria’ and that disputes with Ankara could be managed through discreet diplomacy coordinated with Washington, accusing Netanyahu of deliberately creating security tensions to fuel public anxiety before the election, and said further action should wait until afterward, warning that additional escalation could ultimately ‘come back to us like a boomerang.’
➡️ The leader of Israel’s opposition Democratic Party, Yair Golan, was just as critical in a statement on X, saying that the attack on Syria was a provocative and dangerous move that brought Israel closer to a confrontation with Turkiye and deepened rifts with allies, including the United States.
🔹 Golan said that once again, military forces were being employed for political considerations and once again, Israel paid the price for security: “Netanyahu proves once more that he is an extremist and unreliable figure, one we cannot rely on and certainly not build a stable regional strategy with.”
🔹 According to Golan, Netanyahu erodes trust in Israel and alienates the country from partners and allies: “Israel needs leadership that knows how to wield power to achieve security, not to generate yet another war for political survival.”
➡️ Haaretz said the attack on the base was a direct warning to Ankara and Damascus after intelligence indicated Syria was preparing to allow Turkish troops to deploy, violating the status quo agreement.
🔹 Three sources told Reuters that Mossad Chief Roman Gofman held a phone call with Syrian FM al-Shaibani last week to discuss Turkiye’s military presence, at which point IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir had said Israel ‘will not allow enemy forces to consolidate a presence on our borders.’
🔹 Despite the escalation, both sides were working to ease tensions, with Trump’s envoy Tom Barrack announcing a mechanism to prevent clashes between Israel, Turkiye, and Syria, while warning the strike ‘carried a real risk of rapidly escalating to a direct military confrontation between Israel and Turkiye.;
🔹 Barrack revealed Turkiye had not been warned in advance and observed the aircraft heading north, meaning Ankara could have reasonably prepared a military defensive posture in response.
🔹 Israel have been monitoring President Erdogan’s efforts to expand Turkish power in Syria since the fall of Assad, viewing Ankara’s push to rebuild the Syrian military and establish a client state as a growing strategic threat.
🔹 However, with Israel’s October election nearing and the Trump administration pushing for calm, Netanyahu is unlikely to seek further escalation that could damage his relationship with Washington or undermine his campaign’s core message.
